The poll, conducted Friday through Sunday, also showed the Republican president’s approval rating ticking higher to 37%, up 3 points from last month when his rating tied the lowest of his presidency.

Trump has offered shifting objectives for the conflict such as aiding Iranians to topple their leaders, taking out Iran’s ballistic-missile capabilities and preventing it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The poll found that 69% of Americans — including four in 10 Republicans — think Trump has not “clearly explained the goals of U.S. military involvement in Iran.”

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Trump will not make decisions based on “fluid opinion polls” and reiterated the president’s resolve to prevent Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon.

“What matters most to the American people is having a commander in chief who takes bold action to keep them safe,” Wales said.

Approval of the conflict has been below 40% since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on February 28 — a stark contrast to the opening months of other recent conflicts.

While each had different context, the Iraq War from 2003 to 2011 had the support of about 70% of Americans in its early months. During the early days of the Afghanistan War, which lasted from 2001 to 2021, about 90% of the country backed the war, according to polling by Gallup.

‘No idea’ why US at war

Public disapproval of the war is weighing on Trump and his Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections when the president’s allies will defend slim majorities in the U.S. Congress.

“It’s not clear why we started a war with them. I have no idea,” said Alex Womack, a retired turbine repair specialist from Stockbridge, Georgia, who became a Republican in part because he liked how Republican President George H.W. Bush handled the Gulf War in 1991.

Womack, who served in the U.S. Marine Corps during that conflict, said his support for Trump has ebbed because of the war. “I don’t think he’s doing very well, personally,” he said.

To date, 18 American soldiers have died in the conflict while thousands have died in Iran and in Lebanon, where Iran-allied fighters have battled Israeli forces.

The war has pushed gasoline prices sharply higher, a blow to the finances of many Americans. Gasoline prices are averaging just over $4 a gallon nationwide, up from about $3 a gallon just before the war started on February 28.

“This puts pressure on the party in a myriad of ways, all of them bad,” said Alex Conant, a Republican political strategist and a White House spokesman during the presidency of George W. Bush. “The White House officials have been saying since January that they need to win economic arguments. It’s hard to win the economic arguments when you’re clearly focused on foreign policy.”

Independent registered voters in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll said they were favoring the Democratic congressional candidate over the Republican by 36% to 20%. Independent voters also favored Democrats over Republicans on economic policy, the poll found.

Trump vowed to stay out of wars

In campaigning for the 2024 presidential election, Trump said he would keep the U.S. out of enduring conflicts. He initially estimated the Iran war would last four to five weeks. He has bristled over comparisons to other wars, including the Vietnam War, which lasted two decades and claimed the lives of more than 58,000 U.S. soldiers.

Rhyan Anderson, an independent from Fairburn, Georgia, who voted for Trump in 2024, said he thinks Trump should focus on domestic problems rather than on helping Israel or other allies.

“My biggest thing is just focus on the people who are actually in the country,” said Anderson, who works two jobs in security and data collection and said he voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. “I know we have allies and things like that, but there’s a lot of people here that really need help.”

Since mid-March, the Reuters/Ipsos survey has asked respondents whether they support or oppose military strikes on Iran. At that time, 37% said they supported the war.

That compared to 27% approval on the day the war began, when the Reuters/Ipsos survey also gave respondents the option to choose unsure, which 29% did.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, which was conducted online and nationwide, gathered responses from 1,246 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points in either direction.

The purchase, valued at $60-$70 million, is one of Tehran’s largest-known efforts to strengthen its short-range air defenses since the outbreak of its war with the U.S. and Israel, which exposed gaps in Iran’s ability to protect military sites and strategic infrastructure.

The contract covers the purchase of between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles, the sources said.

The deal was signed with Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, a Hong Kong-based company that the sources said was acting as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier.

IRAN REARMING AFTER MONTHS OF WAR

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. Iran’s foreign ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

“The relevant reports are completely groundless,” China’s Foreign Ministry said. “China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and ending the conflict.”

Queried about the deal at a regular press conference in Beijing on Thursday, Chinese defense ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin said he was “not familiar with the relevant situation”.

Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, the parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, did not immediately respond to an email request for comment on Tuesday.

Iran’s reported rearming efforts come after months of fighting in which the U.S. and Israel have struck facilities linked to its missile, drone and air defense programs, and Tehran responded with barrages of ballistic missiles and drones.

The conflict has highlighted the challenge of defending fixed military and strategic sites against advanced aircraft and precision-guided weapons.

Washington abruptly suspended two weeks of bombardment on Saturday, but President Donald Trump said strikes would resume if negotiations failed to end the five-month-old conflict, which has in theory been in a state of ceasefire since April.

Responding to this article, Trump said Iran receiving such equipment from China would be surprising given what he said were assurances from Chinese President Xi Jinping not to get involved in the war on Iran’s behalf.

“I mean, things like that happen, but that would be surprising. [Xi] told me very strongly he wouldn’t partake, but he knows I’d be quite disappointed,” Trump said on Wednesday in response to a question about this report.

The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS would significantly expand Iran’s inventory of short-range air defense weapons and underscore how military ties with China are deepening.

The sources cautioned that, although the agreement had been signed, delivery schedules, quantities and other implementation details could still change.

Under a plan agreed by the parties, deliveries will initially be by air from Urumqi in western China, then transiting through Pakistan to Iran, according to the sources, who did not clarify whether the transfers would take place by air or by road.

“Speculations of Pakistan being involved in supply of Air Defense weapons to Iran from China are absolutely concocted and false,” Pakistan’s military public relations wing ISPR said.

A spokesperson for the Pakistani Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

SOURCES: CHINA, IRAN EYE LAND ROUTES FOR DELIVERY

While Iran has invested heavily in the past two decades in missiles, drones and radar, military experts say portable air defense systems are important because they can be dispersed quickly, operated by small teams and relocated frequently, making them less vulnerable than fixed air defense batteries.

A European security source said authorities in his country were aware of several contracts under discussion involving the possible sale of QW-series MANPADS to Iran, including QW-12, QW-18 and QW-19 systems.

A second security source, in the Middle East, said Iran had been seeking to purchase QW-12 and QW-18 missiles, but they were unaware that a deal had already been concluded.

The QW-12 and FN-16 are shoulder-fired, infrared-guided surface-to-air missile systems designed to engage low-flying aircraft, helicopters and drones. Their mobility allows them to be deployed rapidly around military installations, energy infrastructure and other sensitive sites.

Defense analysts regard the QW-12 as less capable than newer QW variants, including the QW-18 and QW-19, but say the systems can still provide an effective layer of short-range protection against drones and low-flying targets.

Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran had also explored the use of overland routes to move Chinese military supplies and dual-use components more discreetly and reduce the risk of disruption.

The procurement highlights the Islamic Republic’s continuing reliance on a combination of domestic weapons production and foreign suppliers despite years of sanctions and restrictions on defense related imports.

Reuters previously reported that Iran was close to securing a separate agreement with China to acquire anti-ship cruise missiles, according to people familiar with those negotiations. Reuters could not determine whether the agreement went through.

Ukrainian F-16s have destroyed more than 2,500 Geran and Gerbera one-way attack drones, wrote airpower expert Justin Bronk in an analysis of the Ukraine air war for the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank.

“[The] use of fighters against such drones has consumed an unsustainable number of airframe flying hours and air-to-air missiles … since mid-2024, when the Ukrainian Air Force received its first Western aircraft and trained crews,” the analysis reads.

“Russian industry produces more than 6,000 [one-way attack] drones per month, and fighter aircraft have only a finite number of airframe hours available before they need time consuming deep maintenance cycles to be performed at a factory by expert technicians.”

Ukraine’s fleet currently operates an estimated 39 F-16s, out of about 79 promised by various Western European nations. Ukraine also flies an estimated four Mirage 2000-5 fighters, out of up to 20 promised by France, plus a few Soviet-era Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters.

The F-16s have been a game changer in the Ukraine air war. They enable Ukraine’s small air force to launch stand-off attacks against ground targets using American-made JDAM and French-made AASM Hammer glide bombs. The threat they pose to Russia’s air force became evident earlier this month, when a Ukrainian F-16 reportedly downed an Su-35 over eastern Ukraine.

Ironically, the F-16 has proven such a capable aircraft that it has become a victim of its own success.

“The F-16 fleet has been over-tasked, mostly by C-UAS [counter-drone] interception duties, for which there is almost unlimited demand over time,” Bronk told Defense News.

The root of the dilemmas is that Ukraine is squeezed between multiple aerial threats.

In addition to drone strikes, Russia has launched numerous cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities. Russia has become adept at launching massive combined strikes that begin with waves of drones, followed by cruise missiles, such as the Kh-101, and then ballistic missiles, such as the Iskander-M and Kinzhal.

Ukraine has managed to at least partially tame the drone threat by creating dense belts of short-range air defenses, or SHORAD. These SHORAD belts combine short-range anti-aircraft missiles, anti-aircraft guns, mobile machine gun teams and a variety of homegrown interceptor-drones.

The drawback there is maintaining dense SHORAD coverage along the 745-mile front line — plus defending cities in the rear — with short-range weapons.

“What unites all these mobile air defense teams and counter-drone teams is that their equipment and ammunition is relatively cheap and thus their operations are sustainable,” the RUSI analysis noted. “However, they are relatively personnel intensive to deploy at scale and require both force density and geographical depth to be effective.”

These limitations also point to the difficulties NATO would face in creating its own Ukrainian-style SHORAD system.

“NATO cannot replicate the density of SHORAD defenses that Ukraine deploys for C-UAS coverage, due to the huge personnel requirements of doing so on a sustainable basis,” Bronk told Defense News.

However, NATO could invest in radar-guided anti-aircraft guns to protect key installations, such as airbases and headquarters, and develop cheaper drone-killing munitions for aircraft such as the APKWS II rocket.

Nonetheless, this still leaves Russia’s cruise and ballistic missiles, against which SHORAD is largely ineffective.

As with the U.S. and Israel versus Iran’s missiles, Ukraine must carefully manage limited stockpiles of air defense interceptors like the American-made Patriot and the European-made SAMP/T.

Ideally, Ukraine should rely on SHORAD to stop the drones, while reserving its F-16s for other missions, Bronk argues.

“Other systems need to be used wherever possible for [one-way attack] drones so that F-16 capacity can be used to intercept cruise missiles and deliver strike missions,” Bronk explained. “Within the Ukrainian Air Force inventory, it is by far the most efficient asset for this.”

Bronk believes that F-16 stand-off ground attacks could be even more effective — if Ukraine’s high command was less rigid.

“There is potential for the Ukrainian Air Force to have greater effects if squadrons and wings are given more authority to plan strikes themselves rather than being centrally tasked by Army-centric headquarters elements,” he said.

Throughout the war in Ukraine, Kyiv has had to counter Iranian-designed drones deployed by Moscow. Kyiv has offered its drone interception expertise to countries in the Middle East that have suffered strikes from Iran.

Tehran described the attack on its vessel as an act of aggression and said it would defend its national interests and security, while accusing Kyiv of seeking to expand the war in Ukraine.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in Tehran to convey its protest over what it described as a “hostile and criminal” attack, Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported.

The Iranian denunciation coincided with comments by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Kyiv had noted Russia was passing on its satellite observations in the Middle East to Iran to enable it to direct strikes in the region.

Zelenskyy had earlier said that Ukraine’s forces struck a Russian warship and vessels used for transporting Iranian-linked military cargo in the Caspian Sea.

The Ukrainian president, in subsequent remarks posted on X, said Kyiv had recorded since the beginning of July “active Russian satellite surveillance of the Gulf states and U.S. military facilities located there. These images subsequently appear in Iran.”

“At the same time, there is a clear correlation between Russia’s satellite imagery of these sites and Iranian strikes — both before the attacks, in preparation for them, and afterward, to assess the damage inflicted,” Zelenskyy said.

He said that on July 19 and 20 alone, Russian satellite observation had included four air bases: two in Bahrain, one in Jordan and one in Kuwait.

Operating far behind the front line on Ukraine’s sweeping steppe, such units have hit more than 180 vessels and other sea-borne targets around the peninsula over the past three weeks, opening a new front in the war.

The attacks, first in the Sea of Azov and now expanding into the Black Sea that it opens into, are designed to raise the cost for Russia of occupying Crimea and to swing the initiative towards Kyiv in the fifth year of full-scale war in Ukraine.

“We work day and night, every day, without time off,” said battalion commander “Ray” of Magyar’s Birds, a brigade that is an important part of the effort. In line with Ukrainian military practice, he identified himself only by his call sign.

During a recent visit by Reuters, his team launched drones every couple of minutes. The unit said it struck a cargo vessel and floating crane in the Black Sea and a power substation in south Crimea. Reuters could not independently verify this.

The attacks are part of the growing duel in strategic waters in recent weeks, during which Russia has stepped up strikes on Ukrainian ports and international cargo ships.

Kyiv’s agriculture minister said on Thursday that shipowners had ​temporarily suspended vessel arrivals at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports for agricultural exports following the surge in attacks.

BATTLE OVER CRIMEA

Crimea, which serves as a transit and military hub for Moscow’s troops, has become a new focus for Ukraine’s drone forces as they scale up their strike capabilities.

In recent months, they have targeted road and rail links in a swath of occupied southern Ukraine that connects the peninsula to Russia — which seized and annexed it in 2014, long before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

That has led to fuel shortages and a state of emergency in Crimea, with power and gas facilities also systematically hit.

Now, attacks on oil tankers, dry cargo ships and other vessels mark a widening of Kyiv’s effort to pressure Russian forces by starving them of resources.

Since the new phase of their campaign began in July, drone forces under commander Robert “Magyar” Brovdi have reported hitting about six vessels per day, detailed by Brovdi in mocking, emoji-riddled reports.

The attacks have choked Russian shipping through the Sea of Azov, which receives ships from Russia’s main southern grain-producing region via the Don River.

Brovdi’s forces said the Kerch ferry crossing between eastern Crimea and Russia’s Krasnodar region had lost around 75% of its capacity. Reuters could not verify this.

The commander told Reuters the attacks were aimed at “ruining the myth” of Russian domination and establishing total control over Ukraine’s territorial waters.

The new campaign is dubbed “Molochko”: a portmanteau that sounds like the word “milk” but denotes the phrase “Moscow will collapse because of Crimea.”

Sidharth Kaushal, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London, said Ukrainian attacks on Russian overland logistics had led to an increase in shipping through the Sea of Azov, thus providing more sea-borne targets.

The attacks, he said, are “a logical continuation” of Ukraine’s Crimea campaign.

RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON PORTS AND VESSELS

Ukraine’s strikes have been mirrored by intensifying Russian attacks on southern Ukraine, particularly the city of Odesa and ports that send much of the country’s grain through a maritime corridor to international markets.

On Sunday, 10 sailors were killed after Russian forces struck a Guinea-Bissau-flagged vessel carrying corn from the port of Odesa, Ukrainian officials said.

Last week, at least three people were killed in attacks on Odesa and Mykolaiv, another port city.

In the first two weeks of July alone, Russia struck Ukrainian ports 23 times and civilian vessels 17 times, Kyiv’s seaports authority said last Thursday, leaving traders struggling with logistics headaches.

Agricultural exports such as grains and vegetable oils remain Ukraine’s biggest source of foreign currency earnings, with more than 90% shipped from ports in the Odesa ​region through a maritime corridor.

Russia has said its attacks are aimed at infrastructure storing military cargo and fuel.

HUNTED BY RUSSIANS

The Ukrainian-made FP-1 and FP-2 drones used by battalion commander Ray’s team are a staple of Kyiv’s growing arsenal. They fly automatically to the operational zone, then pilots — often based far away — take over to land the final blow.

Minutes after catapulting their last propeller-powered drone using a small jet booster, the launch team packed up and prepared to move. No site is re-used and teams are often sent to new locations at a few hours’ notice.

Although technological advancements have allowed them to launch from over 100 km, or 62 miles, behind front lines, they are still a prized target for enemy drone teams.

“This is a constant war — a continuous struggle of measures and countermeasures,” said Ray, who commands his brigade’s ninth battalion, called Kairos.

Panama, a squadron commander, said he and fellow troops were motivated by the “tangible results” of their operations.

Beyond complicating Russian logistics, the campaign is boosting Ukrainian morale.

“It’s great that our tempo is so high,” he said, “but we still need to sustain it.”

The Defense Department on Tuesday identified Sgt. Angel S. Rampersad, 28, of Ozone Park, New York, as the third soldier killed during an enemy attack at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan.

In the wake of the assault, U.S. Central Command confirmed the deaths of U.S. Army Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, and 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, from Ewa Beach, Hawaii, who died July 17 and July 18, respectively, according to a DoD release.

CENTCOM originally noted that a third U.S. service member was missing, however, the command announced on July 19 that, “After a thorough search, U.S. military personnel found unidentified remains at the location earlier today. An examination process to verify the remains is ongoing.”

The missing third service member appears to be Rampersad.

The Pentagon noted that the incident is under investigation, with the soldier status updated from “missing” to “believed to be deceased.”

According to the release, Rampersad enlisted in the Army in 2019 and was assigned to 1st Battalion, 57th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 52nd Air Defense Artillery Brigade, 10th Army Air & Missile Defense Command, Ansbach, Germany.

“Today, we mourn the loss of Sgt. Angel Rampersad,” Brig. Gen. Glenn Henke, commanding general of the 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command, said in a statement. “We extend our deepest, most heartfelt condolences to her family and all those who are navigating this unimaginable loss. The 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command is grieving, and we will continue to support one another as we process this tragedy.”

Rampersad’s awards include the Army Commendation Medal, the Army Achievement Medal with two Oak Leaf Clusters, the Army Good Conduct Medal, the National Defense Service Medal and the Army Service Ribbon.

The latest casualties bring the toll of American troops killed in the war with Iran to 18. More than 400 U.S. troops have been wounded in the campaign, which began Feb. 28.

J.D. Simkins and Christina Stassis contributed to this report.

U.S. Army Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, and 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, from Ewa Beach, Hawaii, died July 17 and July 18, respectively, according to a Department of Defense release.

The active-duty soldiers were killed during an enemy attack at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan.

Gonzales was stationed at Ansbach, Germany, assigned to 1st Battalion, 57th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 52nd Air Defense Artillery Brigade, 10th Army Air Missile Defense Command.

Feehan was stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 55th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 32nd Army Air Missile Defense Command.

The incident is currently under investigation, the release states.

On Saturday, U.S. Central Command announced that another U.S. service member is missing following the attack, while four troops, who have since been discharged, were medically evacuated to hospitals in Jordan.

For the ninth consecutive night, the U.S. “hit [Iran] very hard again tonight,” President Donald Trump said on Sunday. The strikes, he said, were in honor of the soldiers who were killed.

“The strikes will continue degrading Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” a CENTCOM post from Sunday reads.

Trump said that “probably” three service members were killed in action, as opposed to two.

As of Monday morning, the Pentagon had not clarified whether a third service member was killed in action.

The command said in a social media post Sunday that U.S. military personnel found unidentified remains at the location of the attack. CENTCOM said that an examination process to verify the remains is ongoing.

The deaths of Gonzales and Feehan bring the toll of American troops killed in the war with Iran to 16. More than 400 U.S. troops have been wounded in the campaign, which began Feb. 28.

Separately, on July 18, a U.S. service member was killed in action in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian one-way attack drone.

“A second service member was wounded and continues to receive medical treatment for a minor injury,” CENTCOM said in a statement.

CENTCOM had not yet provided additional information Monday, such as the identities of those service members killed or missing.

A third U.S. service member is missing, the command release added, while four more troops had to be medically evacuated to hospitals in Jordan.

Those four service members have since been discharged, the command added.

“Other personnel who were evaluated for minor injuries have returned to duty,” the release stated.

U.S. Central Command is withholding the identities of the dead until 24 hours after the service members’ next of kin have been notified.

Additional information about the exact location of the attack had not been provided as of publication.

The casualties in Friday’s attack bring the toll of American troops killed in the war with Iran to 16.

Most recently, the commanding officer of the Navy’s Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron 5, Cmdr. Gabriel Edwards, was killed on July 1 when the MH-60S Sea Hawk helicopter he was aboard went down in the Arabian Sea. Three other sailors were rescued following the emergency landing.

More than 400 U.S. troops have been wounded in the campaign, which began Feb. 28.

Military conflicts, especially the war in Iran, have “tested” the Space Force substantially for the past five months, Senate Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Sen. Jack Reed, D-RI, said Thursday in a hearing to discuss the nomination of Schiess to be the third-ever chief of space operations for the Space Force.

“Space Force assets were among the first to be deployed in Operation Epic Fury and among the first to be targeted,” Reed said in the hearing. “Iran has specifically targeted Space Force command and control nodes and weapon systems throughout this conflict.”

In an Air Force statement announcing Schiess’ nomination, it said that operations such as Iran and Venezuela have “underscored guardians’ ability to deliver combat-ready, asymmetric advantages from space.”

Iran has claimed to have the ability to effectively use the space domain for satellite intelligence and reconnaissance and space launch vehicles with assistance from partners, such as Russia, which could interfere with U.S. or allied assets.

Reed said that Space Force officials before Schiess spent the past seven years since its creation building the organization from scratch through focusing on issues like personnel, infrastructure and base operations.

“That was appropriate for a new service finding its footing, but the Space Force is quickly becoming a mature warfighting entity,” Reed said.

Schiess argued that American space capabilities are crucial to deterring adversaries, like China and Russia, as the countries continue to boost their own capabilities in an effort to exploit space for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance purposes as well as fielding systems that can threaten the U.S. link to American forces.

“The United States no longer has the luxury of viewing space as a permissive environment,” Chairman Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said in the hearing. “China and Russia have made clear that they see space as a critical warfighting domain.”

In particular, Schiess said that China’s anti-satellite tests and electronic jamming capabilities are “worrisome” as they use their efforts to target American forces farther than in the past.

“[China] built a kill chain to be able to see our carrier strike groups, our bombers, at much farther pace, speed and distances, and they’ve also developed missiles and weapon systems to go after that,” Schiess said. “So the Space Force needs to be able to bring capability to deny, degrade that kill web to be able to protect the joint force.”

When asked if the fight of the next major conflict would be in space, Schiess said it’s a possibility. He said that if not, space would be at the very forefront of a conflict, especially with China and Russia.

“I think about China every day,” Schiess said.

Schiess was first nominated by President Donald Trump to be the force’s highest-ranking officer in May. If confirmed, he would take over the role from Gen. Chance Saltzman, who is scheduled to retire this year after serving in the role for four years.

The assessment comes as Ukraine’s battlefield technology has stalled Russia’s advance along the front and drawn foreign partners ready to spend billions of dollars in deals with its defense industry.

European and Ukrainian officials have said for months that Russian casualty rates have climbed to record levels, with Ukraine’s top general telling NATO allies in May that Russia loses at least 1,000 soldiers a day.

“Our intelligence is consistent with some of the open-source reporting you may have seen in Ukraine,” Ratcliffe said at the Defense and Innovation Summit in Pennsylvania. “The average life expectancy of a Russian recruit right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes.”

“That’s because AI-powered drones have gotten to be such specialized, low-cost killing machines,” he added.

Ratcliffe’s confirmation shows how decisively emerging technology can shape a war — and why the U.S. cannot afford to fall behind.

The Russia-to-Ukraine casualty ratio reached nearly 8-to-1 in the first half of 2026, up from roughly 2-to-1 or 3-to-1 for most of the war, as AI-powered drones expanded across the front, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

More than 2 million soldiers on both sides have been killed or wounded since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, with Russia bearing 1.4 million of those casualties, the CSIS researchers found, including as many as 450,000 dead — the highest battlefield death toll suffered by any major power since World War II.

“The takeaway is that the mastery of these emerging technologies is every bit as important as military strength,” Ratcliffe said during the summit. “That’s why an inferior force, four and a half years later, has held off the superior force of Russia.”

Ratcliffe said the U.S. needs to take the lessons learned on the battlefield in Ukraine seriously.

“The pace of their advance has stopped as Ukraine’s mastery of emerging technologies and, in this case, drone warfare, asymmetric warfare, is such a great equalizer, and shows why we have to be leading on this in all respects for us to maintain our place in the global marketplace,” he said.

His remarks came as Washington and its European allies race to fund Ukraine’s drone programs and lock in access to the technology behind them.

The day before, the European Union and Ukraine signed a drone-production deal in Kyiv worth over $6 billion, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that progress had been made on a package of multibillion dollar deals with the U.S.